Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts
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The article discusses how we collected our data, shows the results of our time series analysis and individual value plots, and runs through what we learned when we used the Assistant in Minitab to help us perform a one-way Analysis of Variance, or ANOVA, then followed it up with some regression analysis. Based on the data we collected, we concluded that if you're making big plans that could be affected by weather conditions, it's best to rely on the next-day forecast.
It makes sense that, given a system as complex as the weather, we'll be better able to predict tomorrow's weather when we know what today's weather is.
Or, like Bob Dylan said, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. If you want to make predictions more than 24 hours out, the five-day forecast is better than using a crystal ball. But the day forecasts exhibit considerably more variation than the other two, so if you're relying on the day forecast for your vacation plans, you might want to pack both shorts and a warm sweater.
Minitab is the leading provider of software and services for quality improvement and statistics education. Minitab LLC.
Cleaning the Crystal Ball
Our global network of representatives serves more than 40 countries around the world. The Minitab Blog. Search for a blog post:. Can a day forecast predict today's weather? Maury Coleman Harris. Economist Maury Harris helps readersimprove their own forecasting abilities by examining the elementsand processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts.
Demonstrates best practices in the assembly andevaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through thereal-life steps he and other successful forecasters take inpreparing their projections. These valuable procedures can helpforecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs formaking their own specific business and investment decisions.
Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts by Maury Harris
Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improvingprojections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecastingjudgment a good sense of history and an understanding ofcontemporary theoretical frameworks in readable andilluminating detail.
Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including thecredibility of government statistics and analyses, fickleconsumers, and volatile business spirits.